On 15 September 2021, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson, US President Joseph Biden, and Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison announced the creation of an “enhanced trilateral security pact” called AUKUS (Australia, The United Kingdom, and The United States) According to the deal, US and UK will help Australian Royal Navy to receive nuclear-powered submarines, however, in addition to the development of Australia’s maritime capabilities, treaty envisages cooperation in other significant domains, like cyber; artificial intelligence(AI), quantum technologies and undersea capabilities. Regardless of repercussions and attention, AUKUS deal caused on a global scale, fulfillment of project seems to be long term perspective, as the late 2030s are estimated as the earliest achievable date, because Australia, which has not yet chosen between US Virginia and UK Astute class submarines, should refine harbours and prepare the workforce to achieve interoperability with partners. Before that, the country is determined to extend the life of its current, Collins-class diesel submarines, that has notably inferior capacities in comparison with nuclear-powered ones, as well as, the formers are easily detectable, slower, and need to be resurfaced for refuelling, whereas latter can stay submerged for months stealthily, carry more and shot longer distance missiles. According to frontrunner IR scholars, the AUKUS pact stands for more considerable purposes than mere aid to Australia and deterring China’s voracious desire and fast-growing influence in Indo-Pacific represents the cornerstone of the “Anglo-Saxon campaign”.
The abovementioned political tensions under the pretext of the AUKUS deal, are directly related to Australia’s sudden change of choice and 36€ billion contract cessation with the French Naval Group. The French side, assessed this step, as “Stab in the back” and withdrew ambassadors from Australia and US. While analyzing facts and results, one thing becomes vivid, that France undoubtedly had dozens of reasons for being annoyed. Besides tangible material loss, the French side was not even informed about the new tripartite format, furthermore, as they revealed, a couple of hours before the public announcement of AUKUS, Australia reaffirmed the continuation of the contract in talks with France. France’s particular strategic interest in Oceania and Indo-Pacific region appears to be another important momentum. 1.65 million French citizens are represented on regional islands including French Polynesia, New Caledonia, La Réunion. Exactly because of the aforementioned factors, France answered with Franco-British defence summit canceling; postponing ministerials among France, UK, Germany, US on one hand and France, Australia and India on the other. French President Macron once again insisted on the importance of Europe’s independence in the military domain. Though, after the direct personal intervention of President Biden in process and his meeting with French counterpart, ambiance appeased. France’s bravado and furiousness was just a storm in a teacup, rather an omen of serious diplomatic crisis.
While discussing the issue from the Anglosphere’s point of view, it should be designated, that Anglophone states (US; UK; Canada, Australia, New Zealand) have had various formats of cooperation since WW II. UKUSA (later Five Eyes), Anzus (Australia, New Zealand, USA), Quad (US, India, Japan, Australia). All groupings except UKUSA and AUKUS are primarily political than security-oriented, moreover, AUKUS is often considered as a complementary continuation of UKUSA (Five Eyes) – intelligence-centered alliance. The history and creation of UKUSA lead us to chronicles of the second world war. On 5 March 1946 UKUSA agreement was signed by British and American counterparts in secret circumstances. Alliance got the nomination Five Eyes (FVEY) after joining of Canada in 1949 and Australia, New Zealand duo in 1956. Project was characterized with such clandestine nature, that only details were first released in 2010 National Archives. However, Five Eyes alliance is well-known for broader society with “2013 Snowden Revelations”, when former NSA computer intelligence consultant, Edward Snowden disclosed scandalous and extremely sensitive “top secret” information, according to which intelligence services spied illegally (without court’s permission) on diplomats, incumbents, businessmen. In order to bypass the domestic judiciary system, Five Eye’s countries spied on each other’s citizens and with likewise manipulations managed to stay effective. Influential media and journals like The Guardian remarked: "Five Eyes community is an exclusive club where new members do not seem to be welcome: “It does not matter how senior you are, and how close a friend you think you are to Washington or London, your communications could easily be being shared among the handful of white, English-speaking nations with membership privileges. Thus, the practice has shown, that representatives of the Anglosphere often prefer to have exceptional cooperative relations in extremely sensitive domains with each other, where third part countries are never fully welcome. AUKUS deal and outcasting of France from the process could be well explained with given theory, notwithstanding the fact, that there were noteworthy delays and substantial obstacles in the ship-building process from the French Naval Group.
As mentioned above, the long-term aim of AUKUS deal is related to the containment of China’s military-economic expansion in the Indo-Pacific region. For perceiving a full-scale picture and better understanding the importance of the region, it would be helpful to observe things retrospectively. The significance of the Indo-Pacific region was originally underlined by Theodore Roosevelt, who insisted on a strong connection and coherence between Atlantic and Pacific military fleets, that would help America to better control region and therefore consolidate its global status. China’s notable military-economic leap and its insatiable appetite really forced the US to devote whopping endeavour and resources to deter “perfidious panda”. This issue had a direct reflection in Trump’s administration US foreign policy and region was no more mentioned as “Asia-Pacific”, but “Indo-pacific” and the Department of Defence published a key document: “Indo-Pacific Strategy Report”. Concerning other parties of pact, for the UK joining the campaign means a kind of rehabilitation on the international stage after the Brexit deal, while Australia as a follower of liberal-democratic world order, prefers counterbalancing strategy than band wagoning towards authoritarian order promoter China. Canada and New Zealand are not participants and New Zealand even openly goes against the initiative, claiming not to admit Australian Nuclear-power Submarines in its territorial waters under pretext of Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty(NPT) possible future violations.
Overall, it can be said, that ambiance on the global chessboard still stays volatile, and right now the only certainty is uncertainty. Though, Napoleon’s words about China, that “it is a sleeping giant, whose awakening will shake the world” are coming true and if the western democratic world or the Anglosphere independently manages to neutralize it, time will show.
Bacho Kiria, the Geocase alumnus
December 7, 2021